Will California Meet its 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target?

California would need to nearly triple the rate at which it cuts greenhouse gas emissions to meet its 40 percent reduction goal over 1990 levels by 2030, according to a report by environmental nonprofit Next 10 and research firm Beacon Economics.  

For context, emissions would have to drop by 4.4 percent a year, which will be no small feat—greenhouse gases have declined 0.4 percent per year on average since 1990, according to the study, compiled using data from the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) 2023 GHG Inventory (based on figures up to 2021).

At its current pace, the “Gold Coast” state will first hit the 2030 target in 2047, the authors project.

“While California is well-positioned as a leader on climate, there are substantial obstacles to accelerating our decarbonization efforts in an equitable way that benefits all Californians. These are not insurmountable, but we need to act urgently,” says F. Noel Perry, co-founder of Next 10.

The report finds total greenhouse gas emissions, which were declining for years, bounced back between 2020 and 2021, jumping by 3.4 percent in 2021. This sharp rise follows an 8.8 percent drop in emissions in 2020, which the authors attribute largely to stay-at-home work orders during the height of COVID-19.

Here are some key findings, showing both progress and regression:

CARB challenges the assertion that the state is not on track to meet its fast-approaching goal.

“We’re confident that California will reach its climate targets on schedule. We track progress closely and are in the process of making regulatory adjustments to assure success,” says David Clegern, a California Air Resources Board spokesman.

Electric power generation accounts for the greatest barrier to progress by sector, at least in the last several years. Electric’s emissions have dropped by 40.5 percent since 2000 but only by 12 percent since 2016. The authors attribute the downward trend largely to increased natural gas consumption to maintain power through drought conditions. Natural gas plants are the top greenhouse gas source among in-state electricity producers (27.86M metric tons in 2000 and 20.22M metric tons in 2021).

On the renewable energy front, production has slowed considerably since 2018, placing in question the likelihood of meeting a 2026 Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) goal of 50 percent of power coming from renewable sources. California still holds a substantial lead nationwide (35.8% in California vs. 15.3% in the rest of the U.S.), but the growth has subsided compared to activity, nationwide.

“We need to expedite building out more renewable generation and then reduce the time to connect those resources to the grid. For instance, while renewables increased by 2.2 percent to account for 35.8 percent of California’s total power mix in 2022, electricity generation from renewables still needs to increase by 8.7 percent each year from 2022 to 2026 to meet our 2026 RPS goal,” Perry says.

Just the same, the state has brought online a substantial amount of battery storage and minimal new natural gas generation.

Overall, there’s been good headway in decarbonizing transportation, though a deeper dive uncovers more. Going back a couple of decades, data shows emissions fell significantly over a long stretch—from 175.7M tons CO2e in 2000 to 145.6 in 2021. But lately the numbers are climbing, with emissions associated with people returning to their workplaces since COVID-19 (a 7.4% jump driven by passenger vehicles; though heavy-duty vehicle emissions dropped for the third consecutive year).

California’s cement plants are spewing tremendous volumes of CO2 – about 7.5 metric tons per year between 2008 and 2019—according to CARB’s data. The agency says it is focusing on decarbonizing this sector, exploring options such as lower carbon fuels; increased use of cleaner electricity; and carbon capture, use, and sequestration.

CARB’s climate programs are guided by the Climate Change Scoping Plan, which is updated about every five years. The latest edition aims to help state programs reach carbon neutrality by 2045. Many points raised by Next 10 and Beacon were anticipated there, according to Clegern.

He calls attention to a few changes in CARB programs since 2022 (the year after the latest emissions reported by Next 10 and Beacon):

The Advanced Clean Cars II regulation, which phases out light-duty, fossil fueled vehicles by 2035, is being amended to increase target stringency, Clegern says.

The Advanced Clean Fleets regulation has also been updated, which calls for full electrification of medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets by 2040.

And work is in progress to amend the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which will require increased stringency for transportation fuels sold in the state.

Clegern also references “ongoing discussions and actions” with the California Energy Commission to build out more solar, wind, and geothermal energy.

He touts growth both in renewable energy and clean transportation.

“In 2021, 47.5 percent of total electricity generation came from solar, wind, hydropower, and nuclear power. And our clean car rules and incentives are responsible for sales of nearly two-million plug-in hybrids, battery EVs, and hydrogen powered light-duty vehicles,” he says.

Next 10 and Beacon’s report came out in March 2024, with no subsequent comprehensive, definitive data on progress available. However, preliminary estimates of 2022 emissions have been released as part of the mandatory reporting regulation.

Reiterating Next 10 and Beacon’s assessment, Perry says: "Bottom line, California needs to get going ASAP to reduce emissions across the board in all major sectors of our economy — including transportation, agriculture, residential, commercial, industrial, aviation, and for electricity generation. Otherwise, we will not be able to achieve our 2030 carbon targets on time.”